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Click here for Aquila notes 24nov20

*Dashboards show that overall major markets have remained trapped in ranges over past week, but rotation trade into value is being maintained.

*The recent outperformance of Bitcoin and Oil relative to Gold / Silver shows the importance of positioning in that overall rotation.

*A recent theme has been whether Bitcoin rally shows investors are still “seeking” risk and not protection; this points to the potential for near-term sharp gains in SP500 led by broadening out across sectors.

*A break below 20.0 in VIX would be a catalyst for this if in conjunction with a weaker / stable dollar.

 

 

Recent Videos

19Apr Chart Video: The Bitcoin volatility acts to remind of the scale of leverage in the system.

19Apr Chart Video: The Bitcoin volatility acts to remind of the scale of leverage in the system.

*Incidents this year such Gamestop, Archegos, Wirecard and Greensill, Spac frenzy and then periodic dumps in Bitcoin highlight the amount of leverage in the financial system and the underlying fragility.
*Recall a quote from Jim Chanos mentioned by us some months: “ We are in a golden age for fraud”
*April is traditionally the strongest month for returns in US equity indices, but volatility is building under the surface.
*In FX – the correlation between Gilt-Bund spread and EURGBP remains strong – UK yields need to rally for EURGBP to resume downtrend.

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16Apr Macro Video: The weakness in US bond yields is not sustainable, and a turn higher will usher in broader volatility

16Apr Macro Video: The weakness in US bond yields is not sustainable, and a turn higher will usher in broader volatility

*The market has been quick to fit narratives to the recent pullback in US bond yields related to “peak US growth and inflation”
*We view this as another case of markets fitting spurious fundamental narratives to what is clearly risk reductive price action.
*We looks for bond yields to find a base and note the pick up in the VVIX – the VIX of the VIx itself as a sign that volatility is basing too
*The Nasdaq looks vulnerable to a turn lower, and put spreads are added to the RadarScreen.

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15Apr Chart Video: The break up in commodities may herald a new leg to the reflation trade, but the recent tech rally looks increasingly tenuous.

15Apr Chart Video: The break up in commodities may herald a new leg to the reflation trade, but the recent tech rally looks increasingly tenuous.

*The rally in both Oil and Copper suggests a potential rotation in the reflation trade back to commodities as rates remain stable.
*The Correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin has recently strengthened, but we question whether the Coinbase IPO weak price action suggests BTC wil pause
*Given Nasdaq entered our resistance zone at 14,000/14,500 we have added downside put spreads to the RadarScreen with 6.25:1 payoff ratio
*The strength in commodities can keep nominal bonds weak – we continue to watch real yields with great interest.

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14Apr Chart Video: Strong US 30yr auction shows investor demand for bonds is strong, but this does NOT mean rates will trend significantly lower

14Apr Chart Video: Strong US 30yr auction shows investor demand for bonds is strong, but this does NOT mean rates will trend significantly lower

*The blow out auction in US 30 bonds was notable for strength of demand from end-user investors, but the real yield on the bond compared to March CPI was NEGATIVE!
*This does not necessarily mean rates will go materially lower in the US as the supply of bonds will be relentless given the funding needs of the US government.
*The move higher in equities and stable rates and USD are driving financial conditions looser, but this is starting to look very stretched.
*Watch Oil and Copper for signals of the Reflation trade rotating back into commodities; we remain very tactical here and look for levels to buy vol.

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13Apr Macro Video: US CPI today will set tone for markets looking for direction whilst volumes falls – this a recipe for higher volatility

13Apr Macro Video: US CPI today will set tone for markets looking for direction whilst volumes falls – this a recipe for higher volatility

*US CPI today is key for nearterm direction as many markets mark time and “flag” whilst waiting.
*US equity market internals are weak on both volumes and valuations, with a stand out being the Russell2000.
*We highlight the perverse incentives of years of failed policy form central bankers through a simple chart of global equity market capitalisation (USD) vs balance sheets of Fed / BOJ / ECB.
*USDJPY – like many markets – is marking time as vols fall – but we are preparing for a breakout either way

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12Apr Chart Video: Huge week for “goldilocks” looms with data and Bonds, Oil and Copper providing crucial signpostsfor the reflation theme.

12Apr Chart Video: Huge week for “goldilocks” looms with data and Bonds, Oil and Copper providing crucial signpostsfor the reflation theme.

*Friday’s macro video focused on the potential for reflation trade resumption and discussed the Fed’s role in generating inflation expectations.
*With US CPI Tuesday, US earnings starting, US bond auctions and Covid headlines we look at a crucial week for this reflation theme.
*US equity volumes remains very low as markets grind higher on heavy positioning and positive earnings expectations – the complacency of “Goldilocks” is due to be tested.
*The relative performance of Nasdaq vs Nikkei is notable as reflation spread – we are waiting for a final move in Nasdaq into 14000-14500 target zone as potential entry point

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09Apr Macro Video: Poor US equity internals and US fixed income suggest “Goldilocks” could be short lived – prepare for volatility to rise

09Apr Macro Video: Poor US equity internals and US fixed income suggest “Goldilocks” could be short lived – prepare for volatility to rise

*Deteriorating US equity market internals and increasing geo-political risks point to a limited time frame for “Goldilocks”
*The Fed itself is holding down US real yields and as such as fuelling inflation expectations but a move higher in real yields will see nominals yields move higher too.
*We believe this will fuel the rotation back from growth to value and recharge the reflation themes; US CPI next week is critical.
*This means the VIX time period under 20 could be short lived – we are preparing for a volatility pick up in the coming weeks.

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08Apr Chart Video: Big cap tech resumes leadership as Vol remains low, but complacency in risk-seeking is growing

08Apr Chart Video: Big cap tech resumes leadership as Vol remains low, but complacency in risk-seeking is growing

*While the Fed minutes bought little surprise over plans for tapering, comments from Fed Gov Kaplan highlights the debate beginning to rage at the Fed over tapering and raising rates.
*The Goldilocks phase is gaining momentum but we continue to watch 15/16 zone in VIX as a key support.
*The move in US breakevens close to Fed policy target is causing the pause in rates; we shall discuss this more detail in tomorrow macro video.

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07Apr Macro Video: US Bond markets eye FOMC minutes later as Goldilocks theme extends

07Apr Macro Video: US Bond markets eye FOMC minutes later as Goldilocks theme extends

*The pause in move higher in US rates will be tested with the FOMC minutes later today – watch for signs of tapering talk.
*Assuming not – the grind move of USD down, stocks up looks set to continue if the VIX remains below 20.0
*Trading conditions remain highly tactical – we view this lower vol equilibrium opportunistically but do not believe it is sustainable.

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06Apr Macro Video: VIX below 20 and USD pause signals near-term “Goldilocks” for equities

06Apr Macro Video: VIX below 20 and USD pause signals near-term “Goldilocks” for equities

*With VIX breaking below 20 and momentum waning in US rate moves, “Goldilocks” is in force for US assets.
*Equity inflows have switched from retail options to ETF ownership – this is “stickier” and sets the tone for a grind higher.
*Sterling continues to outperform driven by success of vaccine rollouts – GBPUSD call spreads added to RadarScreen to play for tactical near term upside.

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