Search Results

24Nov20 Macro Video: Sustained rotation to value coupled with lower vol points to increasing risk of short term equity bull run

24Nov20 Macro Video: Sustained rotation to value coupled with lower vol points to increasing risk of short term equity bull run

*Dashboards show that overall major markets have remained trapped in ranges over past week, but rotation trade into value is being maintained.
*The recent outperformance of Bitcoin and Oil relative to Gold / Silver shows the importance of positioning in that overall rotation.
*A recent theme has been whether Bitcoin rally shows investors are still “seeking” risk and not protection; this points to the potential for near-term sharp gains in SP500 led by broadening out across sectors.
*A break below 20.0 in VIX would be a catalyst for this if in conjunction with a weaker / stable dollar.

17Nov20 Macro Video: Higher uncertainty-Lower implied volatility paradox in force but this foretells volatility to come.

17Nov20 Macro Video: Higher uncertainty-Lower implied volatility paradox in force but this foretells volatility to come.

*The issue of sequencing of themes remains hard to navigate for investors generally with higher levels of positioning short USD and long equities.
*Notable is collapse in vol – VIX testing 20/24 support zone – when real economic uncertainty remains so high.
*We remain on alert for a yearend meltup IF USD / US rates / Vol remain rangebound

24Jul20 Video: High Alert for pick up in short-term volatility as echoes of June selloff ring loud.

24Jul20 Video: High Alert for pick up in short-term volatility as echoes of June selloff ring loud.

*Oversold Dollar and pick up in FX vol signals risk of increased volatility ahead
*Recent USD weakness and underperformance of the “fastest horses” such as Big Tech is analogous to the moves prior to the June risk selloff
*We see heighted risk of similar price action in the coming days, especially with the FOMC next week.

06Jul20 Video : Sustained US Dollar weakness could rotate from higher asset price inflation into domestic inflation

06Jul20 Video : Sustained US Dollar weakness could rotate from higher asset price inflation into domestic inflation

*Considering US growth equity outperformance, we hypothesise excess US Dollars have been hoarded in US assets.
*US Dollar strength has attracted capital into US equities showing positive momentum, but has depressed domestic inflation.
*A resumption in USD weakness, whilst initially driving US stocks further into bubble territory, could generate real inflation with significant consequences.

Search Again